Suchergebnisse

AbstractThis study uses prediction market data from the nation's historical election betting markets to measure electoral competition in the American states during the era before the advent of scientific polling. Betting odds data capture ex ante expectations of electoral closeness in the aggregate, and as such improve upon existing measures of competition based on election returns data. Situated in an analysis of the 1896 presidential election and its associated realignment, I argue that the market odds data show that people were able to anticipate the realignment and that expectations on the outcome in the states influenced voter turnout. Findings show that a month ahead of the election betting markets accurately forecast a McKinley victory in most states. This study further demonstrates that the market predictions identify those states where electoral competition would increase or decline that year and the consequences of these expected partisanship shifts on turnout. In places where the anticipation was for a close race voter expectations account for a turnout increase of as much as 6%. Participation dropped by 1%–6% in states perceived as becoming electorally uncompetitive. The results support the conversion and dealignment theories from the realignment literature.

AbstractUsing Cuban Americans who immigrated to the United States between 1959 and 1971 as an example, this article demonstrates the chronic nature of ambiguous loss in the context of loss of homeland. Ambiguous loss theory provides a framework for understanding the pain experienced by this cohort of Cuban Americans and their families who cope with a traumatic loss that defies closure. While keeping their homeland ever present psychologically, this cohort of Cuban Americans has experienced unique identity and relationship challenges rooted in the tensions between the United States and Cuba. They emigrated because of societal changes that followed the 1959 revolution launched by Fidel Castro against the regime of Fulgencio Batista. Contact with their homeland has been limited while they harbor hope that Cuba's government will change for the better. The utility of the ambiguous loss model is supported and suggestions for future research directions are suggested.

All I Ever Had follows the story of political radicals, Bernice "Bunny" Miller and Salvador "Sal" Ortuno. As leaders in the 1970's anarchist biker collective the Freedom River Underground, the couple, along with friends and fellow revolutionaries Harvey, Kettle, Darnell, Mugger, Felix and Kane, are determined to re-shape the world. After sparking political riots at a local university, the group decides to blow up the capitol building in Austin, Texas. Calling it an alarm clock endeavor, their intentions are to wake the world up, to bring down the establishment and create something new, real, and meaningful from amid the rubble, proving that truth is indeed violent. The group struggles internally with issues of violence and nonviolence, while navigating the underworld of radicalists, non-conformists and divergent thinkers. A hairless conspiracy librarian with ties to weapons dealers, a paranoid blacklisted screenwriter, and a powerful Sonoran curandera all cross paths with the group as Bunny faces a pregnancy, and together they highway the fringes and borderlands, ultimately coming to understand the cost of American social dissidence. The story is told by Betts, Sal and Bunny's would-be niece who finds herself struggling for a foothold in a world where so much is so overwhelmingly wrong. An activist herself, Betts is no stranger to tear gas and holding cells, but has become as disappointed with the efficacy of modern activism as it has become with her. Seeking a meaningful way to live, she has dropped out of college, left the apartment she shared with other movement members, and quit on her best friend and long-time boyfriend Milo, a tattoo artist and political philosopher. Mining her aunt and uncle for their story in the hopes of finding some kind of answer to her own dilemma, Betts finds the issue is further complicated as Bunny, older now, faces a bleak battle with cancer. Calling out issues of class, race, sexism, authority and militarism, war, the economy, the environment, activism, morality, and the battle between the personal and the political, All I Ever Had confronts the questions, fears and despair inherent in being alive and aware in our present world.

In the United States, Medicaid is the primary social safety net that provides health care for the poor and other vulnerable populations. Interest group theory and federalism, state level sovereignty, are used to create a theoretical model that proposes factors, other than increasing health care cost, as growth determinants of Medicaid expenditure and enrollments. For over three decades driven by federalism state-level discretionary Medicaid waiver programs have been creating new and unsustainable entitlements. The role of Medicaid waivers is poorly understood and in need of scholarly attention. Due to a lack of federal oversight and other social and political factors, some of which will be discussed in this paper, it appears that discretionary Medicaid waiver programs put in place as a solution are contributing to the overall structural issues of Medicaid. The paper concludes with suggestions on needed research and some potential policy recommendations.